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Oil: Asia drives up global demand
 Le 28 january 2010
According to the monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), following a drop of 1.5% en 2009, global con-sumption of oil should rise by 1.7% in 2010, bolstered by demand from emerging countries and Asia. The IEA expects global consumption to reach 86.3 million barrels a day (mb/d) this year, compared with 84.9 mb/d in 2009. The IEA states that “growth is driven by non-OECD countries,” such as the former Soviet Union, Latin America and Asia. Demand from China is expected to reach 80,000 mb/d. Boosted by booming car sales, China’s oil consumption should continue to rise by 4.3% in 2010. However, demand for black gold is expected to remain very weak in Europe and North America. The IAE notes that, “the cold wave that hit the northern hemisphere in the past few weeks has led many observers to predict a surge in oil demand,” but adds that, “such reasoning overlooks the fact that” in OECD countries, oil is used less and less for heating and power generation. Following a drop of 4.4% in 2009, the IAE expects demand from OECD countries to stabilise in 2010.
The temptation is therefore for oil producers to allocate a greater proportion of their capacity to the East. Saudi Arabia has informed its European customers that its heavy crude will now be earmarked for Asia. In addition, at the end of December Russia opened the first section of its Siberia-Pacific pipeline, which will eventually supply Asia with crude from Russia.
By producing 75,000 more barrels per day in December, to reach a total of 29.1 mb/d, the OPEC exceeded its quotas by 1.8 mb/d. At its meeting in Luanda (Angola) at the end of December, the cartel left its quotas unchanged and called on its members to improve their compliance with quotas. The IEA expects greater investment in oil exploration and production, which should increase by 11% in 2010, if the barrel price remains around the 70 dollar (49 euro) mark according to a survey of 387 companies carried out by Barclays Bank.
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| LAST ISSUE |
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Commerce International - September 2010
No 66
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English 
