Economic outlook 2010

Illustration : Thierry Cap de Coume

At the end of each year, the Canadian Chamber draws up an economic portrait of the country for the coming months. Its Economic Outlook 2010 vies to stay positive, despite a world climate that remains morose. According to the authors of the report, “even the smallest” Canadian businesses will need to make particularly strong efforts in 2010 – notably through the use of new technologies, investment in R&D, cost cutting. They also encourage businesses to take an interest in Asia and Latin America, regions where growth is the strongest. “All must understand the post-recession environment will be quite different than the one we knew before the downturn,” remarks the Chamber.
A new world, as the report notes, that hovers between worrying observations and moderated optimism. While the IMF “projects the global economy will grow 3.1% in 2010”, the Chamber report points out that “economic performance varies widely among regions”. In Canada, where exporters continue to be heavily dependent on the USA (73% of exported goods go to the US market) and Europe (9% of exports), the rhythm of growth will occur “at a modest pace (2.6%, year-over-year) in 2010 before ramping up to 3.3% in 2011”. The Chamber shows prudence in setting out these figures, specifying that they are “subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which are so prevalent”. It fears an uptake that may be too slow compared with the USA, and “a stronger than expected appreciation in the Canadian dollar” that may “act as a significant drag on growth”. The document authors do not fail to praise the recovery measures undertaken by Canada, which came to 25.2 billion euros in 2009, as well as the decision of G20 member countries to maintain these in 2010 (around 17.5 billion euros for Canada).
In terms of geographic distribution, the Chamber foresees a good year for all the territories, even though British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, provinces rich in natural resources, should benefit from “a rebound in global economic activity”. A panorama that has what it takes to reassure “the more than 1.5 million unemployed Canadians”.

www.chamber.ca